Inconsistencies in Yangtze River annual maxima analyses

Earl Bardsley ()
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Earl Bardsley: University of Waikato

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 103, issue 2, No 46, 2613-2615

Abstract: Abstract Yangtze River annual maxima data are available for 1877–1981, for Yichang near the Three Gorges Dam. However, subsequent annual maxima seem not available outside China. Therefore, published methodologies applied to Yangtze discharge maxima cannot always be checked independently against data, despite papers appearing in international journals. The point is illustrated with respect to apparent anomalies in parameter estimation for the generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) applied to Yichang annual maxima. Specifically, Wang et al. (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31: 2281–2296, 2017) list GEV parameter estimates derived from the period 1890–2000. These parameter values give underfit of all Yichang annual maxima between 1877 and 1981. In contrast, the GEV parameter estimates of Sutcliffe (J Hydrol 96: 159–171) paper give better data fits. It may be that the underfit is related to the proposed methodology, which should then be treated with caution. Alternatively, there may be just a typographical error in a listed parameter value. Whatever the cause, the point is made that it would be helpful to have complete time series of hydrological data from China to confirm published analyses.

Keywords: Yangtze River; Annual flow maxima; Three Gorges Dam; GEV fitting; Estimation errors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04062-0

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