Scenario-based seismic hazard analysis using spectral element method in northeastern Pakistan

Saad Khan (), Mark Meijde, Harald Werff and Muhammad Shafique
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Saad Khan: Bacha Khan University Charsadda
Mark Meijde: University of Twente
Harald Werff: University of Twente
Muhammad Shafique: University of Peshawar

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 103, issue 2, No 25, 2144 pages

Abstract: Abstract Seismic hazard analysis is carried out in this study by estimating ground motion for hypothetical earthquakes in the area of Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, with the MT solution of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. The earth’s topography influences seismic waves by scattering and reflecting it, thereby causing spatial variation in seismic response. Using the moment tensor solution of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, we perform 25 spectral element method (SEM)-based 3D simulations along major faults in the study area. The SEM model incorporates the topography and homogeneous half-space characteristics. Our results show that, beside topography, the relative location of the source with respect to slopes also has an influence on the observed variation in ground shaking amplitudes. By integrating the mean and standard deviation of estimated ground shaking from 25 simulations, we present a seismic hazard map for the study area. The map summarizes the topographic and potential source location effect on seismic-induced ground shaking in the study area. It provides a classification from hazardous to safe in relative terms and can be used as a guide in earthquake preparedness.

Keywords: Topographic amplification; Scenario earthquake; Muzaffarabad; Seismic hazard map; Spectral element method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04074-w

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