Socioeconomic impacts of environmental risks in the western Makran zone (Chabahar, Iran)

Majid Pourkerman (), Nick Marriner, Mohammad-Ali Hamzeh, Hamid Lahijani, Christophe Morhange, Sedigheh Amjadi, Matteo Vacchi, Mehran Maghsoudi, Majid Shah-Hosseini and Mohammad Afarin
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Majid Pourkerman: Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science (INIOAS)
Nick Marriner: Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté
Mohammad-Ali Hamzeh: Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science (INIOAS)
Hamid Lahijani: Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science (INIOAS)
Christophe Morhange: Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, CEREGE
Sedigheh Amjadi: Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science (INIOAS)
Matteo Vacchi: Università di Pisa
Mehran Maghsoudi: University of Tehran
Majid Shah-Hosseini: Tarbiat Modares University
Mohammad Afarin: Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science (INIOAS)

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2022, vol. 112, issue 2, No 34, 1823-1849

Abstract: Abstract The western Makran subduction zone is capable of producing considerable tsunami run-up heights that penetrate up to 5 km inland. In this study, we show how climate change has affected urbanization along the tsunami-prone Makran coastline during the past 35 years. To address this issue, we have employed climate data, satellite altimeter radar, geomorphology and historical shoreline changes in order to shed light on the factors leading to a decline in access to freshwater resources and also rapid urbanization. We furthermore consider the interactions between environmental changes and human-induced coastal and catchment modifications in increasing socioeconomic vulnerabilities of littoral areas. The results of this study show that agricultural and freshwater management methods along the Chabahar coastal plain date back to at least 1808 CE, when wetter climate conditions characterized the area. Severe climate changes have been pronounced since 2000. Within this context, the majority of agricultural lands have been abandoned due to increasing drought intensity and duration. Decreasing cultivation and limited access to freshwater resources have led to extensive urbanization particularly for the two cities of Konarak and Chabahar. Enhanced soil erosion, increasing summer monsoon wind speed, sea-level rise and the growing number of strong storm events are some of the climate change-related hazards for high to very high socially vulnerable zones. In addition to environmental risks, poor urban planning has increased damage to coastal infrastructures such as ports and desalination plants. Furthermore, industrial and urban growth in the northwest of the Makran could further enhance socioeconomic damage by earthquakes and tsunamis.

Keywords: Climate change; Coastal erosion; Environmental risks; Socioeconomic challenges; Makran zone; Iran (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05230-0

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