Risk assessment methods of cascade reservoir dams: a review and reflection

Te Wang, Zongkun Li, Wei Ge (), Yadong Zhang, Yutie Jiao, Hua Zhang, Heqiang Sun and Pieter Gelder
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Te Wang: Zhengzhou University
Zongkun Li: Zhengzhou University
Wei Ge: Zhengzhou University
Yadong Zhang: Zhengzhou University
Yutie Jiao: Zhengzhou University
Hua Zhang: Zhengzhou University
Heqiang Sun: Zhengzhou University
Pieter Gelder: Delft University of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2023, vol. 115, issue 2, No 25, 1622 pages

Abstract: Abstract Risk assessment of cascade reservoir dams is not only the key to ensure the safety of the basin, but also the objective requirement of dam risk management. Based on the development status of cascade reservoirs in China, the complexity of dam risk management of cascade reservoirs compared with a single reservoir was analyzed. By reviewing the advances on the studies of dam risk in cascade reservoirs, this paper summarized their limitations in terms of scientificity and practicability. Moreover, some concepts and methods were proposed on the risk assessment of cascade reservoirs: (1) The dam risk of a cascade reservoir was decomposed into own risk and additional risk, the consequence of its dam breach was decomposed into direct loss and potential loss, and an influence coefficient was defined to reflect the risk transmission and superposition degree among cascade reservoirs; (2) The related concepts and formulas for the calculation of dam risk probability and consequence of cascade reservoirs were proposed, which realized the transition of dam risk assessment method from a single reservoir to cascade reservoirs; (3) A project rank classification method for cascade reservoirs was proposed, which took into account not only the project scale and benefits in socioeconomic development, but also the successive dam breaches possibility and consequences. This study is of great significance to clarify the focus of future research and promote the practical application of dam risk management in cascade reservoirs.

Keywords: Cascade reservoirs; Dam breach; Risk transmission; Risk assessment; Probability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05609-z

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