Identification of flood causes and flood modeling for the reconstruction of affected land in Bireuen District, Aceh Province, Indonesia

Eka Djunarsjah (), Dwi Wisayantono, Miga Magenika Julian, Andika Permadi Putra, Sena Andhika Samudra, Saga Maulana, Nafandra Syabana Lubis, Angdrico, Anas Ardian Pradana, Agung Bayu Aji, Briantara Revidinda Putra, Darius Darwin, Veronika Gita Osalia and Yasafi Akhyar Ramadhan
Additional contact information
Eka Djunarsjah: Bandung Institute of Technology
Dwi Wisayantono: Bandung Institute of Technology
Miga Magenika Julian: Bandung Institute of Technology
Andika Permadi Putra: Bandung Institute of Technology
Sena Andhika Samudra: Bandung Institute of Technology
Saga Maulana: Bandung Institute of Technology
Nafandra Syabana Lubis: Bandung Institute of Technology
Angdrico: Bandung Institute of Technology
Anas Ardian Pradana: Bandung Institute of Technology
Agung Bayu Aji: Bandung Institute of Technology
Briantara Revidinda Putra: Bandung Institute of Technology
Darius Darwin: Bandung Institute of Technology
Veronika Gita Osalia: Bandung Institute of Technology
Yasafi Akhyar Ramadhan: Bandung Institute of Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 10, No 12, 11553-11592

Abstract: Abstract In recent years, Bireuen District in Aceh Province has experienced frequent and widespread flooding. This study estimates flood-prone areas using the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, with input data including Digital Elevation Models (DEM), precipitation, soil type, land cover, and the district’s spatial masterplan. Results show that environmental changes caused by extreme precipitation led to a 5–7% difference in areas affected by flooding, while differences in land cover patterns have only a 1% effect. There is no significant correlation between flood-affected areas and anthropogenic pressure, represented by population growth rate. Based on current land cover conditions, flooding potential covers 5.1% of the district’s total area, while the district’s spatial masterplan reduces flood-prone areas to 2.4% of the district’s total area by including river buffer zones. The study demonstrates the ability of spatial modeling to estimate flood potential and identify possible causes. It also quantifies the impacts of implementing the spatial masterplan published by the local government and their response to flood possibilities. Overall, this study provides insights into flood-prone areas in Bireuen District and the effectiveness of the district’s spatial masterplan in reducing flood risks. The findings can help inform flood management strategies in the region.

Keywords: Flood; Flood modeling; Environmental changes; Flood-prone areas; Spatial modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07252-w

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