Southwest pacific extreme tropical cyclone wind risk and its sensitivity to sea surface temperature

Rupsa Bhowmick ()
Additional contact information
Rupsa Bhowmick: University of Wisconsin - La Crosse

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 10, No 42, 12389 pages

Abstract: Abstract Tropical cyclones (TC) pose significant threat to the western region of southwest Pacific Ocean basin (SWPO). This study evaluates the risk of strongest TCs impacting northeast and eastern Australia and SWPO Island nations using an extreme value theory (EVT) on a hexagonal tessellated domain. The goal is to model extreme TC return level for specified return period. EVT computed latent variables including threshold, rate, scale, and shape of the extreme wind distribution, and the 30 and 20 year return levels are mapped. The 30 year return level shows 60 ms−1 or category 5 TCs can be expected over the Vanuatu and Fiji Islands, whereas category 4 TC can be expected near the coastal Queensland and New Caledonia regions. Fiji, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and its surrounding ocean can expect TCs with 55 to 60 ms−1 wind speed in every 20 years. Quantitative analysis of regional sea surface temperature effect on both the 30 and 20 years return levels is done using a geographically weighted regression. Result suggests that 30 years return level is more sensitive to the changes in SST than 20 years return level. This geographic-level assessment of extreme TC return levels is crucial for regional planning and emergency preparation.

Keywords: Tropical cyclone; Extreme value model; Risk; Tessellation; Sea surface temperature; Southwest Pacific Ocean basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-025-07284-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:10:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07284-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07284-2

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().