Temperature and deformation response under the influence of continuous typhoons in seasonal permafrost rainfall-induced landslide evolution

Zongzheng Li (), Jianping P. Chen (), Chen Cao (), Wen Zhang (), Peihua Xu (), Lianjing J. Zheng (), Yaxuan Jing () and Jiayi Y. Hu ()
Additional contact information
Zongzheng Li: Jilin University
Jianping P. Chen: Jilin University
Chen Cao: Jilin University
Wen Zhang: Jilin University
Peihua Xu: Jilin University
Lianjing J. Zheng: Jilin University
Yaxuan Jing: Jilin University
Jiayi Y. Hu: Jilin University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 11, No 29, 13093-13116

Abstract: Abstract Traditional landslide early-warning systems usually focus on displacement, rainfall, and stress, neglecting temperature effects. Rock deformation and failure processes are fundamentally characterized by energy dissipation, which can manifest through thermal changes. It is essential to explore whether temperature response inside landslides could help predict instability. This study investigates a representative landslide in southeastern Jilin Province, which has repeatedly experienced intense disturbances due to consecutive typhoon events. By employing a comprehensive multi-source monitoring strategy, including digital elevation model differencing (DoD), underground instrumentation, and detailed field surveys, we tracked temperature fluctuations, internal deformation, and surface displacement of the landslide. Our findings demonstrate that exceptionally intense rainfall events, occurring approximately once every sixty years, nearly reactivated landslides previously considered stable. Reactivated landslides exhibited accelerated movement, presenting severe hazards to infrastructure and nearby communities. Significantly, temperature within the landslide mass displayed distinctive fluctuation patterns at the onset of instability: Sharp Peak & Gentle Slope (SPGS) and Roller-Coaster (RC). These thermal signatures correlated strongly with rainfall intensity and deformation rates. To explain these observations, we propose two theoretical frameworks: the ambient heat-driven SPGS fluctuation patterns and the spontaneous heat-driven RC fluctuation patterns. The coupled temperature-accumulated rainfall-rainfall intensity analyses showed that: Temperature data can establish joint thresholds for cumulative rainfall and rainfall intensity. Further validation of the SPGS fluctuation patterns is essential for practical application in rainfall-induced landslide early-warning systems. Further research and validation efforts are essential to conclusively determine the predictive value and reliability of temperature changes induced by rainfall in forecasting landslide initiation.

Keywords: Changbai mountain area; Continuous typhoon; Landslide monitoring; Seasonal frozen soil rainfall-induced landslide; Temperature; UAV (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-025-07312-1 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:11:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07312-1

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07312-1

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().