Simulating short-term dispersion of Cs-137 in the East Vietnam Sea: atmospheric fallout from a hypothetical nuclear accident as a source term

Quang-Thien Tran (), Duy-Vinh Vu, Minh-Hai Nguyen, Kim-Long Pham, Xuan-Hai Nguyen, Minh-Dao Nguyen and Trong-Ngo Nguyen
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Quang-Thien Tran: Dalat Nuclear Research Institute
Duy-Vinh Vu: Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (VAST)
Minh-Hai Nguyen: Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (VAST)
Kim-Long Pham: Vietnam Atomic Energy Institute
Xuan-Hai Nguyen: Dalat Nuclear Research Institute
Minh-Dao Nguyen: Dalat Nuclear Research Institute
Trong-Ngo Nguyen: Dalat Nuclear Research Institute

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 13, No 40, 16065-16086

Abstract: Abstract This study combines the FLEXPART atmospheric transport model with the DELFT-3D marine hydrodynamic model to simulate the short-term dispersion of Cs-137 in the East Vietnam Sea following a hypothetical nuclear accident at the Fangchenggang Nuclear Power Plant. Atmospheric deposition from FLEXPART serves as the source term input for marine dispersion in DELFT-3D, enabling a comprehensive assessment of radionuclide transport across air and sea. The findings reveal rapid dispersion patterns influenced by atmospheric fallout and ocean currents, with notable accumulation in coastal zones and near river mouths, and a gradual decline offshore. This work highlights the value of integrating atmospheric and marine modeling approaches to understand radionuclide behavior, offering insights that can enhance emergency response strategies and environmental monitoring frameworks. The approach builds on prior studies of nuclear accident simulations, refining its application to the East Vietnam Sea context.

Keywords: Cesium-137; Atmospheric fallout; Marine dispersion; FLEXPART; DELFT-3D (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07421-x

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