An economic impact assessment of the use of earth observation information in flood hazard communication

Richard Bernknopf (), Yusuke Kuwayama, Benjamin Zaitchik, Matthew Rodell, Augusto Getirana, Andrea Thorstensen and Samiha Shahreen
Additional contact information
Richard Bernknopf: American Geosciences Institute
Yusuke Kuwayama: University of Maryland, Baltimore County
Benjamin Zaitchik: Johns Hopkins University
Matthew Rodell: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Augusto Getirana: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Andrea Thorstensen: St. Cloud State University
Samiha Shahreen: Resources for the Future

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 15, No 26, 17913-17933

Abstract: Abstract Flood hazard forecasts are critical information to reduce the impacts of a disaster. Improved operational forecasts can lead to timelier decisions, which translates into more cost-effective pre-flood mitigation decisions. In this paper, we quantify this economic value of an improved forecast for two types of independent empirical adjustments to National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). The North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) adjusts the ESP to produce an operational seasonal river discharge forecast with forecaster intervention and complements the forecast with an experimental empirical soil moisture adjustment from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). In a retrospective case study, we apply the complementary NCFRC + GRACE forecast to increase the confidence in implementing flood mitigation earlier in flood hazard planning. Specifically, we focus on the reforecast of the 2011 spring season for the Sheyenne River in North Dakota and find that flood protection decisions in Valley City, ND could have been made 5 days earlier and mitigation costs could have been reduced by $1.7 million.

Keywords: Flood forecasting; Earth observation; Hazard warning; Cost effectiveness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-025-07499-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:15:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07499-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07499-3

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().