HEM NAEMP: a novel hybrid ensemble model for North Anatolian Fault zone earthquake magnitude prediction

Elif Özceylan () and Pınar Karadayı Ataş ()
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Elif Özceylan: Istanbul Arel University
Pınar Karadayı Ataş: Istanbul Arel University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 7, No 26, 8387-8410

Abstract: Abstract The application of machine learning in predicting earthquake magnitudes is crucial due to its ability to process extensive data sets and identify intricate patterns, thereby enhancing the accuracy and timeliness of predictions. This capability is essential for improving readiness and relief techniques against seismic activities. This study introduces a novel hybrid ensemble model, the HEM NAEMP, specifically evolved for predicting earthquake magnitudes along the North Anatolian Fault zone. The model integrates data from both the North Anatolian and San Andreas fault zones-the latter selected due to its tectonic similarity-to develop a comprehensive dataset that includes newly extracted features. The novelty of this study lies in the combination of data from two different fault lines to create a new dataset, the extraction of novel features, and the development of a previously unused model leveraging this dataset and its features. The HEM NAEMP model employs a several of regression algorithms, including k-nearest neighbors, random forest, support vector machine, decision tree and extreme gradient boosting, to effectively predict earthquake magnitude. The evaluation metrics for the model are as follows: mean squared error (MSE) of 0.011, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.064, root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.108, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.268, R Square $$(\text {R}^2)$$ ( R 2 ) of 0.92 and training time of 2.44 sec. These results are compared against those from a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, demonstrating that HEM NAEMP has mostly lower error rates in MAE and MAPE and high score in $$\text {R}^2$$ R 2 , as well as reduced training time, thereby confirming its viability and efficiency.

Keywords: North Anatolian; San Andreas; KNN; Random forest; SVM; Decision tree; XG boosting; Ensemble learning; Hybrid model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07134-1

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