A review of cloudbursts events in the Himalaya region, and 2D hydrodynamic simulation using MIKE models

Kuldeep Pareta () and Upasana Pareta ()
Additional contact information
Kuldeep Pareta: DHI (India) Water & Environment Pvt. Ltd.
Upasana Pareta: Omaksh Consulting Pvt Ltd.

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 8, No 10, 9193 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study analyses cloudburst events in the Indian Himalayas from 1970 to 2024, revealing an increasing frequency, particularly in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh. Uttarakhand is the most affected area, Himachal Pradesh experiences frequent events while Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh show rising trends. Hydrodynamic modelling employed MIKE Hydro River, MIKE 21 FM, and MIKE FLOOD to simulate the events, supported by historical rainfall and discharge data. The MIKE Hydro River NAM model calibrated (2015–2020) and validated (2021–2023), achieved R2 values of 0.98 and 0.87, and water balance errors of 0.89% and 0.83%, respectively, confirming its reliability for hydrological simulations. A 2D hydrodynamic model simulated the July 16–18, 2018, cloudburst in Uttarkashi, calibrated using Sentinel-1 C-band data with 91.3% inundation extent accuracy. The August 18, 2019, Uttarkashi cloudburst caused a sharp increase in Bhagirathi River discharge from 1,093 at 04:00 to a peak of 5,729 m3/s by 14:00, resulting in severe flooding and widespread destruction. This event was simulated using the MIKE 21 FM hydrodynamic model over a 12-h period (02:00–14:00), showing an 8-m water level rise in low-lying areas, causing severe infrastructure damage. The integrating of MIKE FLOOD with MIKE OPERATION and AWS for real-time cloudburst prediction highlights the role of early warning systems in improving preparedness, reducing damage, and saving lives during extreme weather.

Keywords: Cloudburst; Himalayas; 2D hydrodynamic simulation; MIKE softwares; Flood modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-025-07173-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:8:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07173-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07173-8

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().