Constructing vulnerability curves considering mitigation capacity to enhance the predictive ability of disaster losses

Fangtian Liu, Erqi Xu () and Hongqi Zhang
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Fangtian Liu: Hebei University of Economics and Business
Erqi Xu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Hongqi Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 9, No 9, 10225-10243

Abstract: Abstract Typhoons are one of the most dangerous meteorological disaster in coastal areas. A vulnerability curve assesses the expected loss by establishing the relationship of typhoon intensity with loss. However, the role of mitigation capacity in reducing vulnerability has not yet been taken into account in vulnerability curve construction, readily introducing uncertainties. This study improved the traditional method used to construct a vulnerability curve, using mitigation capacity to increase the accuracy of vulnerability curve. The results showed that there was a significant correlation between the mitigation capacity and the residual of a traditional vulnerability curve. Moreover, the improved vulnerability curve constructed has higher R2 and lower AIC value. Taking the economy as an example, compared to the traditional vulnerability curve, the R2 of the improved vulnerability curve has increased by 0.01 to 0.05. For a given level of typhoon intensity, the loss rate in counties with a high mitigation capacity was lower than that of counties with a low mitigation capacity. In particular, at high typhoon intensities, the loss rate in counties with a high mitigation capacity was significantly lower. The results provide a scientific reference for authorities in formulating effective mitigation strategies and reducing vulnerability to typhoons.

Keywords: Typhoon; Vulnerability curve; Mitigation capacity; Residual Analysis; Disaster Losses; Hainan Island (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07204-4

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