Global urban flood dynamics and future vulnerability assessment: a comprehensive study of trends, predictions, and mitigation

Arnab Mondal () and Rahul Dev Garg
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Arnab Mondal: Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
Rahul Dev Garg: Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2025, vol. 121, issue 9, No 46, 11187-11207

Abstract: Abstract The need for understanding urban flood extent is essential to take necessary actions for sustainable urban development. In this study, we have estimated the global urban flood extent by combining 30 m global flood extent data, overlaid on 30 m global urban extent data, for the first time. Remarkable trend has shown in China (6% yr− 1), USA (6% yr− 1) and India (5% yr− 1). We perform a comprehensive analysis of global urban flood extent with other influencing parameters like monthly maximum rainfall, total population, urban population and Gross domestic product (GDP). Two Shared Socio economic pathways (SSP1_26 and SSP5_85) are then used in the model to predict future urban flood vulnerability. These shows that Asian countries i.e. India and China will be very highly affected in 2030. The highest percentage of growth for urban flood extent has been noticed in China, 86% and 97% for SSP1_26 and SSP5_85 from 1990 to 2030. Finally, it shows the need of doing more urban flood related research in Asian countries. As, most of the research is done by China (444). The number of research is very high in European (822) than American (576) countries. This helps them to take sufficient adaptation measures against urban flood occurrence.

Keywords: Urban; Flooding; Urban area; Trend analysis; Vulnerability; Sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07288-y

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