Operational tropical cyclone intensity prediction—an empirical technique

S. Roy Bhowmik (), S. Kotal and S. Kalsi

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2007, vol. 41, issue 3, 447-455

Abstract: One very specific operational requirement of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Programme of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre, New Delhi is to provide 12-hourly forecasts valid up to 48 h (preferably 72 h) on the intensity of cyclones over the southern Indian Seas. In this paper, a simple empirical model for predicting the intensity of TCs occurring in the Bay of Bengal is proposed. The model parameter has been determined from a database assembled on 30 recent cyclones, and the model itself is based on the assumption that a TC intensifies exponentially. A method for correcting the forecast during subsequent observation hours (6- or 12-h intervals) is also presented. The results show that the forecast skill for forecasts of up to 48 h is reasonably good. The absolute mean errors are less than 12 knots for 48-h forecasts, with the forecast skill decreasing with time. With the incorporation of a correction procedure based on the latest observations, some improvement in the forecast skill can be obtained. The model is expected to be useful to operational forecasters. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007

Keywords: Intensity prediction; Empirical model and tropical cyclone (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-9053-6

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