Analysis of cyclogenesis parameter for developing and nondeveloping low-pressure systems over the Indian Sea

S. Kotal (), P. Kundu and S. Roy Bhowmik

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2009, vol. 50, issue 2, 389-402

Abstract: A cyclone genesis parameter, termed the genesis potential parameter (GPP), for the Indian Sea is proposed. The parameter is defined as the product of four variables, namely vorticity at 850 hPa, middle tropospheric relative humidity, middle tropospheric instability, and the inverse of vertical wind shear. The variables are calculated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, reanalysis data, averaged within a circle of 2.5° radius around the centre of cyclonic system. The parameter is tested with a sample dataset of 35 nondeveloping and developing low-pressure systems that formed over the Indian Sea during the period 1995–2005. The result shows that there is a distinction between GPP values for nondeveloping and developing systems in more than 85% cases. The composite GPP value is found to be around three to five times greater for developing systems than for nondeveloping systems. The analysis of the parameter at early development stage of a cyclonic storm appears to provide a useful predictive signal for intensification of the system. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Keywords: Tropical cyclone; Genesis potential parameter; Vorticity; Moisture variable; Instability and vertical wind shear (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-009-9348-5 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:50:y:2009:i:2:p:389-402

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9348-5

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().