Sources of uncertainty in a probabilistic flood risk model

B. Winter (), K. Schneeberger, M. Huttenlau and J. Stötter
Additional contact information
B. Winter: University of Innsbruck
K. Schneeberger: alpS - Centre for Climate Change Adaptation
M. Huttenlau: alpS - Centre for Climate Change Adaptation
J. Stötter: University of Innsbruck

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2018, vol. 91, issue 2, No 1, 446 pages

Abstract: Abstract Flood risk models capture a variety of processes and are associated with large uncertainties. In this paper, the uncertainties due to alternative model assumptions are analysed for various components of a probabilistic flood risk model in the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). The effect of different model assumptions for five aspects is compared to a reference simulation. This includes: (I, II) the selection of two model thresholds controlling the generation of large sets of possible flood events; (III) the selection of a distribution function for the flood frequency analysis; (IV) the building representation and water level derivation for the exposure analysis and (V) the selection of an appropriate damage function. The analysis shows that each of the tested aspects has the potential to alter the modelling results considerably. The results range from a factor of 1.2 to 3, from the lowest to highest value, whereby the selection of the damage function has the largest effect on the overall modelling results.

Keywords: Flood risk; Uncertainty analysis; Risk model chain; Vorarlberg (Austria) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3135-5

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