Grey- and rough-set-based seasonal disaster predictions: an analysis of flood data in India

R. Rajesh () and Chandrasekharan Rajendran ()
Additional contact information
R. Rajesh: ABV - Indian Institute of Information Technology & Management
Chandrasekharan Rajendran: Indian Institute of Technology Madras

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2019, vol. 97, issue 1, No 20, 395-435

Abstract: Abstract In a globally competitive market, companies attempt to foresee the occurrences of any catastrophe that may cause disruptions in their supply chains. Indian subcontinent is prone to frequent disasters related to floods and cyclones. It is essential for any supply chain operating in India to predict the occurrence of any such disasters. By doing so, the disaster management and the relief teams can prepare for the worst. This research makes use of a grey seasonal disaster prediction model to forecast the possible occurrence of any flood-related disasters in India. Flood data of major flood occurrences for a period of 10 years (2007–2017) have been taken for analysis in this context. We have established a grey model of the first order and with one variable, GM (1, 1), for prediction; from the results, we observe there are high chances of occurrence of a flood-related disaster in India during the early monsoon period (June–August), in both 2018 and 2020. By observing the prediction sequences on fatalities, there is likelihood that the death toll may rise above 100 and the flood can result in disastrous consequences. Also, the results of prediction are compared using an enhanced rough-set-based prediction model. From the results of rough-set-based prediction model, there are chances of a severe flood in mid-2018 in India. The results will be useful for organizations, NGOs and State Governments to carefully plan their supply and logistics network in the event of disasters. Graphic abstract Proposed methodology of grey seasonal disaster prediction for floods.

Keywords: Seasonal disaster prediction; Grey theory; Rough set theory; Floods; Supply chains (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03651-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:97:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03651-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03651-y

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().