Analyzing interactions between risk factors for ice disaster in Ning-Meng reach of Yellow River based on grey rough DEMATEL method

Wenxin Mao (), Wenping Wang, Dang Luo and Huifang Sun
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Wenxin Mao: Southeast University
Wenping Wang: Southeast University
Dang Luo: North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
Huifang Sun: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2019, vol. 97, issue 3, No 3, 1025-1049

Abstract: Abstract The ice disaster risk in Ning-Meng reach of Yellow River in China is affected by many factors, and the various risk factors are not independent with each other but present complicated causal relationships. Identifying key ice disaster risk factors and analyzing the inner dependencies between factors are conducive to the successful implementation of ice disaster risk management. This paper concludes ice disaster risk factors through the current literature and the formation mechanism of ice disaster. The grey rough DEMATEL method is proposed to evaluate the interactions between risk factors, and it integrates the strength of grey number in characterizing decision maker’s subjective information and the merit of rough logic in excavating and utilizing potential group decision information. The results show that the obtained visualized structural model can reveal the complex causal interactions between ice disaster risk factors effectively and determine the importance of risk factors. The study enhances ice disaster risk identification and provides a better reference for ice disaster prevention and management.

Keywords: Ice disaster; Risk identification; Risk factors interactions; DEMATEL; Grey system; Rough set (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03684-3

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