System Dynamics Based Prediction of New Product Diffusion: An Evaluation

Sabine Schmidt and Daniel Baier
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Sabine Schmidt: Brandenburg University of Technology
Daniel Baier: Brandenburg University of Technology

A chapter in Operations Research Proceedings 2005, 2006, pp 625-630 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract System Dynamics (SD) is a methodology that can be used for analysing and understanding complex feedback systems. Influencing factors, time delays as well as dynamic relations between factors and effects can be assumed and used for simulations and the development of strategies. Whereas the aim of SD models is the better understanding of the relationship between underlying structure and behaviour of the feedback system, it can also — at least in principal — be used for forecasting. This paper analyses this application field by using real and generated data on new product diffusions in a calibration — validation — setting.

Keywords: Ordinary Little Square; Potential Adopter; Product Diffusion; Bass Model; System Dynamics Methodology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:oprchp:978-3-540-32539-0_98

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DOI: 10.1007/3-540-32539-5_98

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