Electricity Price Modelling for Turkey

Miray Hanım Yıldırım (), Ayşe Özmen (), Özlem Türker Bayrak () and Gerhard Wilhelm Weber ()
Additional contact information
Miray Hanım Yıldırım: Middle East Technical Univ.
Ayşe Özmen: Middle East Technical Univ.
Özlem Türker Bayrak: Çankaya Univ.
Gerhard Wilhelm Weber: Middle East Technical Univ.

A chapter in Operations Research Proceedings 2011, 2012, pp 39-44 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This paper presents customized models to predict next-day’s electricity price in short-term periods for Turkey’s electricity market. Turkey’s electricity market is evolving from a centralized approach to a competitive market. Fluctuations in the electricity consumption show that there are three periods; day, peak, and night. The approach proposed here is based on robust and continuous optimization techniques, which ensures achieving the optimum electricity price to minimize error in periodic price prediction. Commonly, next-day’s electricity prices are forecasted by using time series models, specifically dynamic regression model. Therefore electricity price prediction performance was compared with dynamic regression. Numerical results show that CMARS and RCMARS predicts the prices with 30% less error compared to dynamic regression.

Keywords: Root Mean Square Error; Time Series Model; Electricity Market; Electricity Price; Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:oprchp:978-3-642-29210-1_7

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783642292101

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-29210-1_7

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Operations Research Proceedings from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().