Assessing the predictability of different kinds of models in estimating impacts of climatic factors on food grain availability in India

Manojit Chattopadhyay () and Subrata Kumar Mitra ()
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Manojit Chattopadhyay: Indian Institute of Management Raipur
Subrata Kumar Mitra: Indian Institute of Management Raipur

OPSEARCH, 2018, vol. 55, issue 1, No 3, 50-64

Abstract: Abstract The study explored the relationship of the climatic predictor variables such as seasonal temperature and rainfall pattern and non-climatic variable such as area under cultivation with the predictand per capita food grain production. We applied a linear method “Generalized Linear Model” and two non-linear methods “Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline” and “Generalized Additive Model” to Indian data and assessed the data on basis of their performance in predicting food grain production. It was found that an adaptive version of generalized additive model has yielded the lowest predictive error in terms of lower root mean squared error. Better predictability of food grain production based on climatic factors may necessarily help to anticipate the nation’s food grain availability. The forecasts would facilitate scientists, farmers, policy makers, business organizations and the government to formulate appropriate adaptable strategies to cope with the climatic variability influence on food availability.

Keywords: Food grain; Seasonal temperature; Seasonal rainfall; Climatic influence; Area under cultivation; Prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s12597-017-0314-9

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