On the Spot and Map: Interactive Model-Based Policy Support Under Deep Uncertainty

Erik Pruyt (), Tushith Islam () and Thomas Arzt ()
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Erik Pruyt: Delft University of Technology
Tushith Islam: Delft University of Technology
Thomas Arzt: SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation GmbH

A chapter in Policy Analytics, Modelling, and Informatics, 2018, pp 315-342 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In this chapter, we discuss and demonstrate the use of ‘on the spot’ and ‘on the map’ scenario exploration and policy-support in workshop settings. First we justify the need for exploratory model-based policy workshops. Then we present some methods and techniques needed for these workshops. Special attention is paid to new techniques we believe are crucially needed for this kind of interactive workshop if time is of the essence, namely (1) techniques to quickly generate small but diverse ensembles of alternative scenarios, and (2) techniques to visualize whole-system dynamics on maps by means of geospatial animations. We subsequently describe a workshop related to the 2015–2016 European refugee crisis for which this approach and these techniques were developed and used. Finally, we discuss shortcomings and improvements to deal with these shortcomings and conclude.

Keywords: Exploratory modelling; System dynamics; Adaptive sampling; Geospatial visualization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:paitcp:978-3-319-61762-6_14

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-61762-6_14

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