Future Drug Prices and Cost-Effectiveness Analyses

Martin Hoyle ()

PharmacoEconomics, 2008, vol. 26, issue 7, 589-602

Abstract: Most of the drugs previously appraised by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) are actually more cost effective than stated by NICE. Furthermore, most or all drugs for chronic conditions are actually far more cost effective than stated by NICE. Hence, it is likely that some of the previous negative decisions made by NICE concerning drugs for chronic conditions would instead have been positive if the methodology in this study had been implemented. It is recommended that, to capture the true cost of a drug, UK-based cost-effectiveness analyses should assume that the future real cost of a drug decreases over time, typically by 4% per annum, with a standard deviation of 2.5%. This change is very easy to implement in cost-effectiveness analyses. Similar conclusions may apply worldwide. Copyright Adis Data Information BV 2008

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.2165/00019053-200826070-00006

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