Methods to Elicit Probability Distributions from Experts: A Systematic Review of Reported Practice in Health Technology Assessment

Bogdan Grigore (), Jaime Peters, Christopher Hyde and Ken Stein

PharmacoEconomics, 2013, vol. 31, issue 11, 1003 pages

Abstract: Judged by the studies identified in the review, reports of expert elicitation are insufficient in detail and this impacts on the perceived usability of expert-elicited probability distributions. In this context, the wider credibility of elicitation will only be improved by better reporting and greater standardisation of approach. Until then, the advantage of eliciting probability distributions from experts may be lost. Copyright Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2013

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1007/s40273-013-0092-z

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