Detecting Price Explosivity (Bubble) in Turkey’s Stock Prices: Evidence from an Radf Technique

Kelvin Onyibor () and Okan Şafakli ()
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Kelvin Onyibor: European University of Lefke
Okan Şafakli: European University of Lefke

A chapter in Global Issues in Banking and Finance, 2019, pp 127-142 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Most of the historic economic and financial crises have resulted from the negligence of financial asset bubbles (overpricing of an asset above its fundamental value). Hence, this has drawn much attention to the need for bubbleBubble detection in these financial asset prices in order to avert a future financial crisis. This study would employ the second-generation base Right-tailed Augmented Dickey-Fuller test technique (Standard ADF, Sup ADFSup ADF , Rolling ADFRolling ADF (RADF) , and the Generalized Sup ADFGeneralised Supremum ADF (GSADF) ) to detect the presence of price explosivity in TurkeyTurkey ’s stock market prices. Employing the entire RADFRolling ADF (RADF) would help date stamp both single and multiple price bubbleBubble periods in stock prices. This study covers weekly data of TurkeyTurkey ’s BIST 100 from 200W1 to 2019W4 in order to capture the before and after periods of the 2008 financial crisis. A presence of multiple bubbles is expected in the series since the data covers a range of financial crisis period associated with the stock market. If the null hypothesis of no bubbleBubble is significantly rejected, expansionary monetary policies, transparency in the economic agents and prudential macro policy would be possible recommendations for policymakers to deflate the existing bubbleBubble .

Keywords: RADF; GSADF; Sup ADF; Rolling ADF; Bubble; Stock price; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-030-30387-7_9

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-30387-7_9

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