Analysis of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation and Transition Characteristics at Different Timescales Based on Complex Networks

Jiao Yan and Jing Ma ()
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Jiao Yan: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Jing Ma: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

A chapter in Smart Service Systems, Operations Management, and Analytics, 2020, pp 41-53 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Based on the theory of complex networkComplex network , the crude price data for 30 years is processed by coarse-graining method and the price fluctuation network of crude oil is constructed. According to the price of crude oil at different timescalesTimescales , this paper establishes the different complex network models to compare the topological propertiesTopological property of crude oil price fluctuation network and explores the internal characteristics of the original oil price fluctuation system. Meanwhile, using the K-core, the obtained fluctuation loops at different timescalesTimescales are analyzed to achieve certain prediction effect. As is shown in the study, small-world phenomenon and scale-free characteristics exist in the crude oil priceCrude oil price fluctuation network at different timescales. However, with the increase of timescaleTimescales , the small-world phenomenon of the crude oil priceCrude oil price fluctuation network is enhanced, while the scale-free properties are weakened. Ultimately, this paper summarizes the differences and relations between the evolution of crude oil priceCrude oil price fluctuation under different scales, and the next research direction is put forward.

Keywords: Crude oil price; Complex network; Timescales; Topological property (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-030-30967-1_5

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-30967-1_5

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