Modelling of Population Consumption in Conditions of Instability

Ganna Kharlamova, Andriy Stavytskyy and Oleksandr Chernyak ()
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Oleksandr Chernyak: Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

A chapter in Organizations and Performance in a Complex World, 2021, pp 101-119 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The analysis of consumption plays an important role in both macroeconomic theory and empirical research. The matter of macroeconomic instability is one of the main points in modern macroeconomics. The tasks of the paper are: to reveal the essence of the population consumption as an economic category; to assess consumer attitudes in different countries, to determine the number of factors that affect the level of consumption and its structural elements under instability; and to construct the models of population consumption patterns. The analysis of the changes in consumer attitudes over the world during the period of instability was conducted. We observed the dynamics and structure of household consumption spending in the United States, Canada, Japan, the European Union, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. It has been resolved that over the past few years the global trend has improved, which is characterized by an increase in the consumer confidence index for most countries. We made a focus on the post-crisis period only for Ukraine, not considering the war period due to missed data. Nevertheless, we found out that the Consumer Confidence Index in Ukraine has dropped sharply over the past two years. Ukrainians still negatively assess the economic trend due to the difficult macroeconomic situation in the country. We built the models of the dependence of the consumption growth rate on the permanent and temporary incomes growth rate, the rate of inflation and the percentage deviation from the long-term equilibrium in the period of instability based on the samples for the United States, Canada, Japan, the Russian Federation and European countries.

Keywords: Model; Instability; Consumption; EU; Ukraine; Consumer confidence index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-030-50676-6_9

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-50676-6_9

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