Retail Demand Forecasting for Small-Medium Enterprises During COVID-19 Pandemic: Case Studies Based on Romanian Convenience Stores

Emanuel-Emil Savan (), Oana Gica and Aurelian Sofica
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Emanuel-Emil Savan: Faculty of Business, Babes-Bolyai University
Oana Gica: Faculty of Business, Babes-Bolyai University
Aurelian Sofica: Faculty of Business, Babes-Bolyai University

Chapter Chapter 7 in Navigating Through the Crisis – A special Issue on the Covid 19 Crises, 2022, pp 101-131 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract During the current crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic, most businesses are facing serious challenges, e.g. supply chain disruptions, extra direct costs, changes in demand, or digital experience. Even those sectors which prosper or did not experience a significant drop in demand are reporting other difficulties and require decision-making support. In this context the carried work captures the impact of the current crisis on the small-medium enterprises (SMEs) which operate in the Romanian food and grocery market (FGM), by analysing a case study based on three different local proximity stores and explores the application of time series analysis. In addition to identifying the challenges brought by the pandemic, the carried literature review reveals an increase in competition on the proximity sector of the Romanian FGM, and it highlights the importance of demand forecasting for improving managerial decision-making. The data analysis provides a number of insights regarding the pandemic’s impact on the case study SME, e.g. it generated an increase in sales (especially in the first 2 months), it increased the value of the shopping basket and reduced the number of individual customers, and it altered the percentage distribution of product categories.

Keywords: Forecasting; Time series analysis; Decision support; COVID-19 pandemic; Small-medium enterprises (SMEs) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-030-82755-7_7

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-82755-7_7

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