Analysis of Changes Induced by the COVID-19 Crisis in the Structure of Daily Electricity Consumption

Diana-Mihaela Jula
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Diana-Mihaela Jula: School of Advanced Studies of the Romanian Academy, National Institute for Economic Research ‘Costin C. Kirițescu’, Romanian Academy

Chapter Chapter 13 in Crisis after the Crisis: Economic Development in the New Normal, 2023, pp 177-191 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In this chapter, we analyzed, for Romania, the evolution of the hourly structure of electricity real consumption, over the period 2006–2021. In order to estimate the magnitude of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic impact on the dynamics of average daily electricity consumption, we used, as counterfactual, the forecasts constructed through SARIMAX type models. We evaluated the impact of the coronavirus on energy real consumption between March 2020 and December 2021 and found that the effects are differentiated both by hourly intervals and time periods. For 2020, the outcomes of the econometric models show that the statistical criteria support a hypothesis according to which, during the state of emergency and with the exception of time slots from 8:00 to 10:00 a.m. and 7:00 to 8:00 p.m., at the beginning of the state of alert, the COVID-19 crisis induced the decline in the hourly electricity real consumption. In the summer of 2020, consumption increased but fell again in winter. In 2021, except for the autumn months, electricity consumption was higher than the pre-crisis values, for all hourly time intervals.

Keywords: Electricity real consumption; Hourly profile; COVID-19 crisis impact; SARIMAX model; Counterfactual analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-031-30996-0_13

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-30996-0_13

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