The Role of Artificial Intelligence Foresight in Preventing Recessions and Overheating

Dumitru-Alexandru Bodislav (), Florina Bran, Cristina Dima and Valeriu-Ionuț Andrei
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Dumitru-Alexandru Bodislav: Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Florina Bran: Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Cristina Dima: Bucharest University of Economic Studies
Valeriu-Ionuț Andrei: Bucharest University of Economic Studies

A chapter in Leading Change in Disruptive Times, 2026, pp 131-142 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This paper explores the intersection of macroeconomic cycle analysis and artificial intelligence (AI) to propose a transformative approach to economic forecasting and policymaking. Kitchin, Juglar, Kuznets, Schumpeterian, Kondratieff, and Real Business Cycles are all macroeconomic cycles that are necessary to understand economic fluctuations and their effects on stability, employment, and growth. Traditional approaches to analyzing these cycles frequently fail to accurately predict turning points and effectively manage their complexities. AI integration is a powerful solution because it enables real-time monitoring, predictive modeling, and scenario simulation. This paper presents an AI-driven foresight framework designed to improve economic policy decisions using data integration, machine learning models, and decision support systems. Applications are evaluated in a wide range of critical areas, including fiscal planning, monetary policy, labor market management, financial stability, and climate-responsive strategies. AI can improve inflation forecasting, optimize tax policies, and facilitate workforce reskilling, among other benefits, as demonstrated by real-world examples AI can help governments and institutions prevent recessions, reduce inflation, and promote long-term sustainability. This study emphasizes the importance of combining technological innovation with ethical and transparent practices, and it provides a framework for leveraging AI’s potential to build more inclusive and resilient economies.

Keywords: Macroeconomic Cycles; Artificial Intelligence; Economic Forecasting; Policy Optimization; Economic Resilience (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-032-19276-9_9

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-19276-9_9

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