Modeling passenger loyalty in intercity rail services using a generalized ordered logit model

Pedram Akbari, Mahmoud Mesbah () and Morteza Bagheri
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Pedram Akbari: Amirkabir University of Technology
Mahmoud Mesbah: Amirkabir University of Technology
Morteza Bagheri: Iran University of Science and Technology

Public Transport, 2025, vol. 17, issue 2, No 2, 347-366

Abstract: Abstract Loyalty has been considered an important factor in increasing passenger satisfaction, operator’s profitability and the share of public transportation in the literature. While most previous studies on intercity services investigated passengers’ loyalty considering hypothetical statements, such as the probability of making a trip or suggesting a service to others in the future, which may come true or not, this study examines loyalty based on actual passenger behavior by adopting the frequency of use as a proxy to measure loyalty. Furthermore, previous case studies used a specific line or a station in their research, while this paper surveyed 20,543 individuals from 15 intercity railway stations, ranging from large metropolises to medium and small towns. The data were analyzed by developing a generalized ordered logit model which could provide novel and comprehensive insight. As a result, 16 factors affecting the frequency of use were identified including a wide range of demographic, trip attributes, and infrastructure variables. Using this model provides policies on the likelihood of service use and passenger loyalty that cannot be found in the literature. The validation of the model shows a reasonable accuracy of prediction with 60% exact matches and 87% with one category difference. Planners and operators can use the result of this study to develop customer retention strategies and improve the patronage of transit operators.

Keywords: Passenger loyalty; Frequency of use; Generalized ordered logit models; Intercity services (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s12469-024-00375-6

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