Adjusting the Predicted Aggregate Risks to Account for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks, Part 2: Safety and Reliability

Allan S. Benjamin
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Allan S. Benjamin: Allan Benjamin Company

Chapter Chapter 6 in Integration of Project, Infrastructure, and Enterprise Risk Management, 2025, pp 59-71 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The chapter continues on from Chap. 5 by demonstrating correlations of historical data that provide insight into the potential contribution from U/U risk to the total aggregate frequency of life-threatening or mission-threatening accidents; illustrating the synergism between and relevance of data from a variety of sources, including rocket launches, crewed space missions, nuclear reactor accidents, commercial and military system reliability performance, and human reliability performance; and suggesting a table of adjustments to the calculated frequency of life-threatening or mission-threatening accidents to account for U/U risk as a function of composite leading indicators.

Keywords: Unknown risk; Underappreciated risk; Leading indicators; Case studies; Launch vehicle accidents; Space shuttle accidents; Nuclear reactor accidents; Military system reliability; Human reliability; Composite leading indicators; Loss probability correlations; Numerical guidelines (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:rischp:978-3-031-85070-7_6

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-85070-7_6

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