Managing Risks of the Unknown

Sven Ove Hansson ()
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Sven Ove Hansson: Royal Institute of Technology (KTH)

Chapter Chapter 10 in Risk Analysis of Natural Hazards, 2016, pp 155-172 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Traditional probabilistic risk assessment needs to be supplemented in at least two ways: We need ways to analyze risks for which no meaningful probability assessments are available, and we need to take into account ethical issues such as voluntariness, intentions, consent and equity. In this contribution three tools for such an extended risk assessment are presented with a particular emphasis on how they can be used to deal with risks that have large components of natural causes: Possibility analysis deals with “mere possibility arguments”, i.e. risks that we know very little about. The three-party model is a framework for analyzing the ethics of risk. Hypothetical retrospection is a method for overall assessment of risks in non-numerical terms. These tools are all constructed to introduce important considerations into risk assessment that tend to be excluded or neglected in the traditional approaches. This widening of the scope of risk assessment does not make the assessment easier, but it can contribute to making its output more useful and more responsive to social needs.

Keywords: Counter-affected; Ethical risk assessment; Great uncertainty; Hypothetical retrospection; Mere possibility arguments; Natural risks; Possibility analysis; Probabilistic risk assessment; Stakeholder; Symmetry tests; Three-party model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:rischp:978-3-319-22126-7_10

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-22126-7_10

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