Economic Potential of Breakthrough Technologies and Its Social Consequences

Askar A. Akaev () and Andrey I. Rudskoi ()
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Askar A. Akaev: Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory 1
Andrey I. Rudskoi: Saint Petersburg Peter The Great Polytechnic University

A chapter in Industry 4.0, 2017, pp 13-41 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Since 2008 the world economy is undergoing a systematic structural and technological crisis. The economic potential of the technologies based on silicon semiconductor microelectronics is exhausted. Experts are now trying to identify new breakthrough technologies that can play the same role in the development of society. In this paper we consider the NBIC-technologies (N-nano-, B-bio-, I-information- and C-cognitive-) as such technologies, which are characterized by the their powerful synergies. Exemplifying the US economy, which uses about 10 % of the NBIC-technologies’ capacity, and based on an original mathematical model, we estimate that the use of such technologies can ensure economic growth by one percentage point or more. Using data from the medium-term forecast of the US NNI, we provide a long-term forecast of the dynamics of the volume of product innovation and the number of new jobs created in the US and around the world, describing the economic potential of NBIC-technologies. An analysis of the social impact of the use of NBIC-technologies is also provided. In particular, the issue of social consequences of the process of replacement of the highly skilled and paid jobs by more profitable new information technologies, is outlined.

Keywords: NBIC-technologies; Basic innovations; Social development; Non-linear models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-49604-7_2

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