Forecasting

Thierry Aimar (), Francis Bismans and Claude Diebolt
Additional contact information
Thierry Aimar: Université de Lorraine

Chapter Chapter 5 in Business Cycles in the Run of History, 2016, pp 69-84 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter is devoted to the study of the German business cycle. In the tradition of Burns and Mitchell, it considers its classical form, which is represented by fluctuations in the series of the real Gross Domestic Product. After a methodological introduction, the chapter presents the main features of the German business cycle after dating it. Then it develops a probit model in order to predict recessions for the totality of the analyzed period. Finally, the chapter delivers a forecasting in real time for the most recent economic period.

Keywords: Business cycles; Econometrics; Forecasting; Germany; Methodology; Probit models; Time series analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:spbchp:978-3-319-24325-2_5

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783319243252

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-24325-2_5

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in SpringerBriefs in Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().