Assigning a Prior Distribution

Marcel van Oijen ()

Chapter Chapter 3 in Bayesian Compendium, 2020, pp 17-21 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract There is no such thing as the prior probability distributionPrior probability distribution of a parameter or a set of modelsModel. A prior expresses uncertainty arising from incomplete knowledge, and whatever the subject is, people have different knowledge and expertise. So instead of speaking of “the prior probability of $$x$$”, each of us should say “my prior probability for $$x$$”. We assign a prior probability distributionPrior probability distribution, we do not identify it. This is even the case when we invite the opinion of experts on the likely values of our model’sModel parameters.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-55897-0_3

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