Demographics and Growth: Who Booms, When?

Charlie Robertson (crobertson@rencap.com)

A chapter in The Time-Travelling Economist, 2022, pp 193-218 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Most countries achieve their highest per capita GDP growth when the working age share of the population has risen from 50% to 70%, and the ratio of adults to dependents has risen from 1 to over 2. In this we outline what a simple demographic model would imply for GDP growth and explain why some countries have greatly exceeded that (e.g., China) and others have underperformed since 1960. We then make long-term GDP and per capita GDP forecasts out to 2070 for many countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa.

Keywords: Growth; Demographic dividend; Dependency ratio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-97597-5_5

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-97597-5_5

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