When Things Go Awry

Richard Marney () and Timothy Stubbs ()

Chapter Chapter 9 in Emerging Markets Debt Restructuring, 2024, pp 409-442 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter takes the four cases and creates three counterfactual scenarios for each by modifying key assumptions in the Restructuring and Implementation phases from those in the original case studies. The changed and diverse outcomes are meant to illustrate what can change and why. The interplay of context, actors, and twists of fate can produce a wide range of results, sometimes due to even very minor tweaks to the action, and in many cases influenced by the level of the relevant EM’s level of institutional development. Even in these apparent scenes of chaos, the presence of mature, effective legal institutions facilitating debt resolution will increase the likelihood of an orderly process that balances divergent stakeholder interests fairly.

Keywords: Scenarios; Counterfactual; “Good Bank—Bad Bank”; Opposition party; Enforcement; Pandemic; Global warming; Burden sharing; Rogue lender; Local interests; Intervention; Receivership; Liquidation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-031-66838-8_9

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-66838-8_9

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