Four Shots of Fed Inflation 2019–25

Brendan Brown () and Philippe Simonnot ()

Chapter Chapter 6 in Bad Money, 2025, pp 43-53 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The most asked question in the financial media through late 2023 was why the US recession, so widely foretold at the start of that year in consequence of the previous year’s big increases in the Fed’s policy rate—from 0 to 4% by end-2022 and then to 5% by Spring 2023—failed to arrive. Instead, a solid growth outcome materialized, including almost 5% GDP growth in the Summer (2023) and a continuously strong labour market. US stock markets had delivered stellar performances—S&P 500 up almost 25% to end-2023, a result which was to be repeated the following year (to end-2024). Had the economists and financial experts mostly got it wrong due to some basic flaw in their analysis? Had they been too pessimistic, underestimating the skill of the Powell Fed to engineer a “soft landing” in which inflation would fall back towards target without the emergence of recession?

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-95425-2_6

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