Structural Problem Areas and Prospects of the Chinese Development

Wolfram Elsner () and Elyar Najmehchi
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Wolfram Elsner: University of Bremen (ret.)

Chapter Chapter 17 in The Rise of China, 2026, pp 455-476 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract As examples of problem areas in China’s development, this chapter first discusses the death penalty, while also explaining the debates surrounding it and the reforms and reductions implemented so far. More generally, the chapter explains the judicial punitive and People’s Mediation systems, their rehabilitation focus, the considerable progress toward the rule of law, the new Civil Code, individual rights and data sovereignty, and the Credible China movement. It discusses the Chinese strict anti-corruption system, which, together with its meritocracy, keeps the political system, caste, and bureaucracy largely “clean” (as compared to the Political West). Second, the chapter also explains the problem of long-term infrastructure, corporate, and housing reinvestment cycles. These could easily push a country that has generated a huge modernization investment over decades into an existential economic disinvestment and reinvestment cycle. This temporal mechanism needs to be broken in a timely manner, and China seems to have already started this with systematic dis- and reinvestments. Third, the chapter discusses the role of nuclear power in China’s path toward ecological civilization, taking into account the pushes in renewables, fusion energy, and Thorium salt technology, as well as the need to reduce energy consumption overall and in the longer run, in the face of AI computation and data-center energy requirements. Fourth, the chapter discusses the prospects of China’s demographic and labor-force issues, its (not so dramatic) aging problem, the successes and failures of the one-child policy, its productivity pushes, its productive utilization of the grayhair economy, maternity and family issues, and the cultural change (mainly among young professional women) re. marriage and childbirth. Fifth and finally, the chapter discusses the infamous middle-income trap, how China has avoided it so far and what needs to be further done to prevent it. It discusses the issue of the “middle class” and some critical ideological developments around it. While addressing additional future challenges, the chapter calls for a more intense and serious learning about China in the Political West.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-032-20260-4_17

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-20260-4_17

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