The Limits of Risk Models and the Case for Baseline Resilience (Alpha)

Sharron L. McPherson ()
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Sharron L. McPherson: Resilience Technologies Inc.

Chapter 2 in From Risk to Resilience, 2026, pp 19-40 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter examines the structural assumptions underlying conventional risk models, including probabilistic forecasting, historical baselines, and hazard-centric measurement. It argues that these models are insufficient in environments marked by compounding uncertainty and institutional fragility. By distinguishing between exposure, vulnerability, and governance capacity, the chapter demonstrates how risk frameworks frequently fail to translate knowledge into durable institutional action. It introduces the “Missing Middle” between risk identification and capital deployment, showing how data without institutional legibility stalls decision-making. The chapter lays the groundwork for reorienting resilience measurement toward structured governance signals capable of informing policy, infrastructure investment, and capital allocation.

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-032-26057-4_2

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-26057-4_2

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