Influencing HIV/AIDS Policy in India Through Mathematical Modelling

Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao and Philip K. Maini ()
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Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao: Augusta University, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology
Philip K. Maini: University of Oxford, Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute

A chapter in UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics, 2016, pp 257-261 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme in India (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. To help the planning team set appropriate targets, we were asked to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) under different intervention protocols. Using a dynamical systems approach to model the time evolution of disease, we predicted that if $$50\,\%$$ 50 % of the targets in NACP III were reached, then there would be 2.08 million PLHIV by 2011. This prediction was published in 2009 and compared very well with the 2.089 million PLHIV estimated by the Indian government at the end of 2011. This success of mathematical modelling encouraged the Indian government to integrate mathematical modelling into their decision making process.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33

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