Influence of External Factors on Inter-City Influenza Spread in Russia: A Modeling Approach

V. N. Leonenko () and Yu. K. Novoselova
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V. N. Leonenko: ITMO University
Yu. K. Novoselova: ITMO University

A chapter in Trends in Biomathematics: Modeling, Optimization and Computational Problems, 2018, pp 375-389 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The work is dedicated to the mathematical modeling of inter-city influenza spread in Russian Federation. The authors combine the local SEIR model of the influenza outbreak in an urban environment and the model of inter-city virus spread via migration flows, calibrating the resulting multicomponent model to long-term data on weekly acute respiratory infection incidence in 41 Russian cities. The aims of the research are: (a) to compare the modeling output with the observed picture of the virus spread and to assess its accuracy; (b) to assess the influence of the quality of transport data on the output; (c) to assess the applicability of the model for predicting influenza spread in Russia and to discuss the ways of changing the model to enhance its predictive ability.

Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-319-91092-5_26

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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-91092-5_26

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