Research on Demand Forecast of Social Pension Facilities: A Case Study of Chongqing

Yu Zhao (), Jiuxia Tan and Yang Chen
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Yu Zhao: Graduate Student of Chongqing Jiaotong University
Jiuxia Tan: Graduate Student of Chongqing Jiaotong University
Yang Chen: Graduate Student of Chongqing Jiaotong University

A chapter in Proceedings of the 23rd International Symposium on Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate, 2021, pp 457-475 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract With the deepening of the aging process and the gradual weakening of the family’s endowment ability, the demand of institutional endowment facilities will be increasing in the future. In the face of the present shortage and unreasonable allocation of endowment facilities in Chongqing, this paper combines field investigation with Leslie Matrix model to forecast the demand of the facilities of the aged in Chongqing. Firstly, this paper analyzes the current situation of the aging of Chongqing population and the endowment institution, then the population growth and population structure change of Chongqing during the next 10 years are forecasted and analyzed by using Leslie Model based on the relevant data of Chongqing in the “China’s fifth census” “China’s six census”, so as to forecast the number of old-age beds and the nursing staff needed in the pension institutions in Chongqing. The results show that Chongqing will reach an aging peak in 2019 of which Dadukou District peaking in 2020 and other districts peaking in 2019. At the age of the aging, if the number of old-age beds is allocated according to 8%, the biggest gap of the number of the old-age beds is Wanzhou District with a total gap of 2527 and the smallest district is Dadukou District with a total gap of 257. If the provision of care provider in accordance with the 1:10 ratio, the total number of elderly nursing staff 37290–42147 are needed during the peak period of Chongqing. At the same time, according to the results of the research data, this paper asks the corresponding old-age facilities construction suggestion combined with the actual situation of Chongqing. The research results can provide constructive suggestions for the development of the endowment service in Chongqing and help to promote the efficient and reasonable construction of the endowment facilities in urban institutions.

Keywords: Social pension facilities; Demand forecast; Chongqing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-15-3977-0_35

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