Progress and Structure of Intraregional Trade in CASA: Addressing and Understanding the Trade Conundrum

Nassir Wani

Chapter Chapter 3 in Trade and Development in Central and South Asia, 2025, pp 47-69 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract Globally, the least integrated regions are Central Asia and South Asia. While each member nation has effectively raised its portion of the global market, intraregional trade growth is trailing behind. To understand the declining trade paradox and evaluate regional trade patterns, this chapter breaks down regional trade data from 2005 to 2021 by employing the Frankel index for trade estimations and regional trade profiling. The projected Frankel index does not indicate trade regionalism in CASA, as neither intraregional imports nor exports do. The regional trade profile of CASA countries shows that trade within the region is becoming less important, while the percentage of South Asia’s total trade (not including Pakistan) with other CASA nations is dominant. Except for Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, the Central Asian nations’ percentage of their overall exports to their counterparts in 2022 grew more than what was anticipated based on the export preference of 2005. This result suggests that the CASA areas are unable to satisfy the region’s import requirements, except for India. India’s ability to meet the import demand of the other CASA countries will be the primary driver of intraregional trade in both regions, as these economies have more or less similar economic structures. According to the results, there won’t be any economic growth in intraregional trade until the CASA economies are strong enough to meet trade needs, boost trade between and within industries, help the regional value chain grow, and commence trade in new areas like services.

Keywords: Central Asia; South Asia; Regional integration; Bilateral trade; Trade conundrum (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F13 F15 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-981-95-2728-1_3

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DOI: 10.1007/978-981-95-2728-1_3

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