Tinbergen’s Macro-Dynamics: Instability and the Possibility of Collapse

Michaël Assous and Vincent Carret
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Vincent Carret: Université Lumière Lyon 2

Chapter Chapter 6 in Modeling Economic Instability, 2022, pp 121-145 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract After his involvement in the early meetings of the Econometric Society, Tinbergen started to work on different macro-dynamic models able to account for economic instability. In 1934, he built a model generating new types of economic movements which eventually led him in 1936 to consider the possibility of having two equilibria, one stable, one unstable, with damped or self-sustained cycles around the high equilibrium and a collapse once the economy reaches the low equilibrium. Tinbergen saw these models, with reference to Fisher’s 1933 classic EconometricaCollapse paper on debt deflation, as a way to interpret the potential of a crisis to trigger the collapse of the economy.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-90310-7_6

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