Kane Tanaka’s 119 Birthday and the Supercentenarians’ Age Estimation. Further Remarks on the Oldest Old Record of 122 Years by Jeanne Calment

Christos H. Skiadas ()
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Christos H. Skiadas: Technical University of Crete

Chapter Chapter 16 in Quantitative Demography and Health Estimates, 2023, pp 205-215 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract In a previous study, based on the large number of centenarians in Japan, we had constructed a model to estimate the supercentenarians in the country, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76002-5_2 . The model was published in Volume 46 of The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis. Projections are done and forecasts are made for the maximum expected age at death of record holder Kane Tanaka, now at 119 years old. Now, February 22, 2022, we have used the Saito-Ishii-Robine (Exceptional lifespans. Demographic research monographs (a series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research). Springer, Cham, 2021) death data set for females (100–118 years old) in Japan from 1951 to 2015 to test an advanced model. We fit this model to data from 100 to 109 years of age and make projections from 110 to 119 years of age. The fit and projections apply perfectly. We have also used data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) for female deaths (100 to +110 years old) in Japan from 1950 to 2019. The fit and projections verify the expected one supercentenarian at 119 years of age. The same model was applied to centenarian female deaths from 1950 to 2019 in a large number of countries (Europe-USA-Canada-Australia-New Zealand and Japan). By this method, a large amount of death data is selected, adequate to find extreme age supercentenarians. The fit and projections led to at least one supercentenarian at 122 years of age; that is Jeanne Calment’s record. Having estimated the two parameters of the model (slope and curvature) for these countries, we have fitted the Gerontology Research Group (GRG) database set, which led to an expectation of a supercentenarian at 120 years of age and a good probability for a 121-year-old supercentenarian in the world. A recent publication by Lenart et al. (Exceptional lifespans. Demographic research monographs (a series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research). Springer, Cham, 2021) confirms our findings from 2018 regarding Calment’s record. Our provided formula estimates one supercentenarian at age 122 in the year 2045 (Skiadas, Demography and health issues: Population aging, mortality and data analysis. The Springer series on demographic methods and population analysis 46. Springer, Cham, 2018) to reach the Calment’s record.

Keywords: Centenarians; Supercentenarians; Maximum Reported Age at Death (MRAD); MRAD formula (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-28697-1_16

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