Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections

Hana Ševčíková (), Nan Li (), Vladimira Kantorova, Patrick Gerland () and Adrian E. Raftery ()
Additional contact information
Hana Ševčíková: University of Washington, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences
Nan Li: United Nations, United Nations Population Division
Patrick Gerland: United Nations, United Nations Population Division
Adrian E. Raftery: University of Washington, Departments of Statistics and Sociology

Chapter Chapter 15 in Dynamic Demographic Analysis, 2016, pp 285-310 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The UN released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth (e 0) using Bayesian hierarchical models, yielding a large set of future trajectories of TFR and e 0 for all countries and future time periods to 2100, sampled from their joint predictive distribution. Each trajectory was then converted to age-specific mortality and fertility rates, and population was projected using the cohort-component method. This yielded a large set of trajectories of future age- and sex-specific population counts and vital rates for all countries. In this chapter we describe the methodology used for deriving the age-specific mortality and fertility rates in the 2014 PPP, we identify limitations of these methods, and we propose several methodological improvements to overcome them. The methods presented in this chapter are implemented in the publicly available bayesPop R package.

Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model; Cohort-component method; Life expectancy at birth; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Total fertility rate; United Nations; World Population Prospects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-3-319-26603-9_15

Ordering information: This item can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/9783319266039

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_15

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().