Extensions and Limitations of Migration Forecasts

Jakub Bijak ()
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Jakub Bijak: School of Social Sciences, Centre for Population Change and S3RI, University of Southampton

Chapter Chapter 10 in Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View, 2011, pp 199-216 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract The current chapter focuses on migration, and to some extent population forecasts from the point of view of forecast makers: official statisticians and individual researchers. Three possible pathways of extending the modelling framework are discussed in more detail, following the recent advancements both in statistical modelling and theoretical economics. The first one, discussed in Section 10.1, attempts at reconciling quantitative and quantitative research traditions, by combining data-based and theory-based approaches within the Bayesian paradigm. The second one, briefly presented in Section 10.2, is the ‘Bayesian melding’ framework of Poole and Raftery (2000), where statistical inference is performed on models exhibiting both deterministic and stochastic features. Subsequently, in Section 10.3, the ‘imperfect knowledge’ approach to macroeconomic models with plausible microfoundations, proposed by Frydman and Goldberg (2007), is discussed in the context of migration. Finally, Section 10.4 attempts to sketch the limits of migration forecasting, and propose a tentative agenda for future migration research, which can help improve the understanding of migratory processes.

Keywords: Prior Distribution; Conjunction Fallacy; Population Forecast; Imperfect Knowledge; Deterministic Mechanism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-90-481-8897-0_10

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DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0_10

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