The Use of International Migration Theories in Migration Forecasting—A Practical Approach

Marek Kupiszewski (), Jakub Bijak () and Anna Kicinger ()
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Marek Kupiszewski: Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of Sciences
Jakub Bijak: University of Southampton, Division of Social Statistics and Demography, ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC), Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute
Anna Kicinger: IOM, Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research

Chapter Chapter 3 in International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe, 2013, pp 35-55 from Springer

Abstract: Abstract This chapter provides an assessment of the usefulness of the theories of international migration from the point of view of migration forecasting. We argue that theories are not very useful for migration forecasters. Migration theories are fragmented, refer to various spatial scales, are difficult to operationalize and span a large number of quite distant disciplines. Nevertheless, we do not advocate here the preparation of completely atheoretical forecasts. Instead, we suggest that picking the most appropriate theories might be a solution for forecasters. We conclude that the push–pull theory is the most suitable theory for direct use in migration forecasts and we analyse the main push—pull factors which have been identified as responsible for international migration in Europe. We also argue that migration policies should be factored explicitly when setting international migration scenarios.

Keywords: International Migration; Purchase Parity Power; Destination Country; Migration Flow; Migration Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:ssdmcp:978-90-481-8948-9_3

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DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-8948-9_3

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